Get the Nationals vs Orioles Injury Report – Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Washington Nationals on August 13, 2024, both teams come into this Interleague matchup with different trajectories. The Orioles are riding high with a solid record of 70-49, showcasing one of the best offenses in MLB this season, ranking 2nd overall. The Nationals, on the other hand, sit at 54-65, struggling with a 22nd ranking in offensive production.

In their last outings, the Orioles fell 2-1 to the Tampa Bay Rays, while the Nationals lost 6-4 to the Los Angeles Angels, continuing a tough stretch. Notably, the Orioles’ Trevor Rogers pitched well in his last start, going 5 innings with 2 earned runs, but he holds a troubling 2-10 record this season and ranks as the 249th best pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His low strikeout rate of 17.4% may be a concern against a Nationals offense that has been relatively patient at the plate.

Jake Irvin, projected to start for the Nationals, has had a mixed season with an 8-10 record and a solid 3.76 ERA. However, he struggled in his last outing, allowing 5 earned runs. Both pitchers are expected to deliver an average number of innings, with Rogers projected to allow 2.5 earned runs and Irvin 3.2.

Despite the Nationals’ offensive woes, they have a strong base-stealing game, ranking 3rd in that category, which could be an intriguing factor against an Orioles bullpen ranked 22nd. The projections lean heavily in favor of the Orioles, who are seen as big favorites with an implied team total of 5.17 runs. The stage is set for the Orioles to capitalize on their offensive strength against a struggling Nationals lineup.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  In his previous game started, Jake Irvin conceded a staggering 5 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  James Wood has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.6-mph to 100.1-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  James Wood hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Recording 15 outs per outing this year on average, Trevor Rogers falls in the 23rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Gunnar Henderson has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 32.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly inflated relative to his 24.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-190)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected lineup ranks as the 3rd-best of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 72 games (+14.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-125)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 110 games (+9.45 Units / 6% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-235)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+15.80 Units / 19% ROI)