Get the Marlins vs Braves Injury Report – Friday, August 08, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Atlanta Braves

On August 8, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Miami Marlins at Truist Park for the second game of their series. Both teams are struggling to find their footing this season, with the Braves sitting at 48-66, while the Marlins hold a slightly better record at 56-58. The Braves’ offense ranks 20th in MLB, and their pitching staff has been underwhelming, particularly with Bryce Elder projected to take the mound. Elder has a disappointing 4-8 record and a 6.03 ERA this season, ranking him as the 198th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics.

In contrast, Edward Cabrera of the Marlins has been a bright spot, boasting a solid 3.24 ERA and a 5-5 record. Cabrera’s performance has placed him 66th among starting pitchers, indicating he is above average. However, both pitchers face challenges today; Elder is projected to allow 2.7 earned runs, while Cabrera is expected to give up 2.4.

The Braves have seen some offensive improvement recently, with their best hitter posting a .364 batting average and a 1.136 OPS over the last week. However, their overall offensive struggles are evident, particularly in their 28th rank for stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ best hitter has been on fire, recording a .450 average and a 1.427 OPS during the same stretch, suggesting they may have the edge in this matchup.

With both teams having average implied totals of 4.00 runs for this game, betting markets indicate that it will be closely contested. Given the disparity in pitching performance and recent offensive outputs, the Marlins may have the upper hand in this matchup, despite the odds suggesting a tighter contest.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Edward Cabrera’s 95.9-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 91st percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Graham Pauley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Graham Pauley has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.6-mph dropping to 79.3-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under Total Bases
  Eric Wagaman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Bryce Elder has averaged 91.6 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 77th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+245/-340)
  Michael Harris II has been unlucky this year, notching a .272 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .051 discrepancy.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The Atlanta Braves have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jonathan Ornelas, Eli White, Sean Murphy).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 54 games (+19.75 Units / 35% ROI)
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Sean Murphy has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+5.70 Units / 95% ROI)