New York Mets
Milwaukee Brewers
(-105/-115)-115
On August 10, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the New York Mets at American Family Field for the third game of their series. The Brewers are currently enjoying a strong season, sitting at 72-44, while the Mets are a bit behind at 63-54. Both teams are statistically in the mix, but the Brewers have the edge in the standings and overall performance.
In their last game, the Brewers showcased their offensive prowess, continuing to rank 3rd in MLB in team batting average. They also boast the 12th best offense overall, which speaks to their ability to generate runs consistently. However, despite their high batting average, they rank 22nd in home runs, indicating a reliance on getting on base rather than power hitting.
Quinn Priester is projected to take the mound for Milwaukee, bringing an impressive 11-2 record and a solid 3.15 ERA this season. His advanced-stat Power Ranking places him as the 82nd best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he has been above average. However, his xFIP at 3.76 implies that he may have experienced some luck thus far. Priester’s projections for today include an average of 5.3 innings pitched, 2.6 earned runs allowed, and 4.3 strikeouts.
On the flip side, Sean Manaea will start for the Mets, with a 1-1 record and a 3.52 ERA this year. His performance has been less stellar, ranking below average in the Power Rankings, and he projects similarly to Priester in terms of innings but with slightly worse numbers across the board.
Given the Brewers’ favorable matchup and their strong home performance, they are expected to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a struggling Mets lineup that ranks just 13th in overall offense and a troubling 23rd in team batting average. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, hinting at a potentially competitive matchup, but the Brewers may have the upper hand.
New York Mets Insights
- Sean Manaea – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)Generating 16.8 outs per game per started since the start of last season on average, Sean Manaea falls in the 77th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-105)The New York Mets projected lineup projects as the 3rd-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Quinn Priester – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)The New York Mets have 6 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Quinn Priester in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Milwaukee Brewers hitters jointly rank 30th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 6.5% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-115)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 112 games (+28.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 away games (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.45 Units / 75% ROI)