Get the Injury Report for Nationals vs Reds – Saturday May 3rd, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Washington Nationals on May 3, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup as both teams are looking to improve their standing. The Reds, sitting above .500 at 18-15, have shown signs of a solid season. In contrast, the Nationals’ 14-19 record highlights their struggles, leading to a tough season thus far.

In their previous game on May 2, the Reds dominated, securing a convincing 6-1 victory, while the Nationals faced defeat with the same scoreline. Cincinnati’s starting pitcher, Nick Lodolo, is coming off a stellar performance, going 7 innings with no earned runs and striking out 9 batters. Lodolo has been a reliable asset, boasting an impressive ERA of 2.25 this season, although his xFIP of 3.97 suggests a potential regression. He will look to maintain control against a Nationals offense that ranks 18th in the league.

On the other side, Trevor Williams is set to take the mound for Washington. His season has been rocky, highlighted by a 5.70 ERA and a troubling last outing where he allowed 5 earned runs over 5 innings. With the Reds’ offense ranking 10th in the league, they could exploit Williams’ struggles at the plate.

The projections favor the Reds, who are expected to have an implied team total of 4.85 runs compared to the Nationals’ 3.65. With Lodolo’s recent form and the Reds’ strong offensive display, they appear poised to capitalize on this matchup against a struggling Nationals squad. This game offers the Reds an opportunity to solidify their positive momentum in a critical series against Washington.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Trevor Williams’s slider usage has risen by 5.9% from last season to this one (34.7% to 40.6%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Dylan Crews has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 15.5% seasonal rate to 25% in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Nick Lodolo’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.6 mph this year (92.5 mph) below where it was last year (94.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Fraley can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Tyler Stephenson has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-130)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games (+4.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-120/-110)
  Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.75 Units / 28% ROI)