Get the Injury Report for Cardinals vs Cubs – Thursday August 1st, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals in an important National League Central matchup at Wrigley Field on August 1, 2024. The Cubs sit at 52-58, struggling through a below-average season, while the Cardinals, at 56-52, are performing above expectations. This series opener represents a critical opportunity for both teams to gain momentum, especially after the Cubs secured a decisive 13-4 victory against the Cincinnati Reds in their last game.

Projected starters Shota Imanaga for the Cubs and Sonny Gray for the Cardinals will take the mound. Imanaga has enjoyed a solid season with an 8-2 record and an impressive 2.95 ERA, ranking him as the 63rd best pitcher in MLB. However, his peripherals suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate this season. In contrast, Gray has a strong 10-6 record and a 3.79 ERA, but his 2.73 xFIP indicates he has faced some tough luck, potentially leading to better performances moving forward.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 22nd in MLB, struggling to generate consistent runs and home runs, although they do rank 5th in walks. In contrast, the Cardinals sit in the middle of the pack offensively, ranked 17th.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cubs an average estimated team total of 4.05 runs and projects them to score approximately 4.29 runs against the Cardinals, while the projections suggest St. Louis will average 4.45 runs. With both teams looking to capitalize on their recent momentum and improve their standings, this game promises to be a closely contested match.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Sonny Gray’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2486 rpm) has been quite a bit lower than than his seasonal rate (2538 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Batters such as Tommy Pham with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Shota Imanaga who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• St. Louis Cardinals hitters jointly place 28th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 6.8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Because groundball batters hold a notable edge over flyball pitchers, Shota Imanaga and his 41.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in this game facing 1 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Nico Hoerner is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 101 games (+13.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 away games (+5.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 31 games (+18.05 Units / 51% ROI)