Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Pirates vs Giants - Friday, May 08, 2026

+100O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-120

Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
Carmen Mlodzinski’s change-up utilization has increased by 16.6% from last season to this one (11.6% to 28.2%) .
Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Nick Gonzales – Over/Under Hits
Nick Gonzales is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Pittsburgh Pirates bats jointly rank 7th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 93.3-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
In his last GS, Robbie Ray was in good form and allowed 2 ER.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
Willy Adames has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph dropping to 84.1-mph over the past two weeks.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
Heliot Ramos has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants – Over/Under Team Total
The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.30 Units / 16% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.20 Units / 15% ROI)

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