Get Expert Player Predictions for Guardians vs Yankees – Tuesday August 20, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Cleveland Guardians on August 20, 2024, both teams are enjoying stellar seasons, with the Yankees at 73-52 and the Guardians sitting just behind at 72-52. This matchup is particularly significant as it marks the first game of a new series, and both teams are striving to maintain their momentum in the playoffs. The Yankees recently suffered a close 3-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers, while the Guardians fell 2-0 to the Milwaukee Brewers; both teams will be looking to bounce back.

Luis Gil is projected to take the mound for the Yankees, and despite a recent uneventful outing where he allowed 4 earned runs in just 4 innings, he ranks as the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his potential. He faces Matthew Boyd of the Guardians, who has had a strong season with an impressive 1.69 ERA but has only started 1 game this year. The projections suggest that Gil will average 5.6 innings today while allowing 2.3 earned runs, which could potentially give the Yankees an edge, especially considering their #1 ranked offense that has excelled with power, hitting 149 home runs this season.

However, it’s worth noting that Boyd’s ability to limit walks, paired with New York’s high-walk offense, might negate some of their strengths at the plate. The Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -150, which aligns with the leading MLB projection system indicating a favorable outlook for them at a projected win probability of 60%. This sets the stage for an intriguing battle at Yankee Stadium as both teams look to elevate their standings in the American League.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+130)
  Among all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Will Brennan – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  Will Brennan has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 80.3-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Luis Gil has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying 3.4 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  DJ LeMahieu is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Luis Gil – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Jose Trevino, the Yankees’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 81 games (+17.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 29 away games (+11.85 Units / 35% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+11.25 Units / 30% ROI)