Get Expert Player Predictions for Angels vs Braves – July 01, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

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Atlanta Braves

On July 1, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Los Angeles Angels at Truist Park in what is set to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams are currently struggling, as the Braves sit at 38-45 this season, while the Angels hold a 41-42 record. Despite their respective difficulties, the Braves enter this game with a higher implied win probability, suggesting they might have the edge in this contest.

The Braves’ projected starter, Grant Holmes, is coming off a solid performance where he pitched 5 innings with only 2 earned runs on June 26. Holmes, who has an ERA of 3.70, is regarded as the 78th best starting pitcher in MLB, drawing attention for his strikeout potential, with 7.1 strikeouts projected for tonight. However, he has been somewhat fortunate this season, as indicated by his 4.32 FIP, suggesting he may face challenges going forward.

Conversely, Tyler Anderson, the Angels’ starter, has struggled significantly this year, ranked among the worst pitchers in MLB. His 4.41 ERA is average, but his peripherals indicate he could be due for regression, with a 4.92 xFIP. Anderson’s projection of allowing 3.4 earned runs and 5.4 hits further raises concerns for the Angels.

Offensively, both teams are underperforming, with the Braves ranked 21st in MLB and the Angels at 22nd. The Braves’ best hitter has been a bright spot, boasting a .261 batting average and an .839 OPS, while the Angels rely heavily on their power, ranking 4th in home runs despite their low batting average.

Given the Braves’ favorable matchup against Anderson’s struggles, alongside their home-field advantage, they should be regarded as the team to beat in this high-scoring affair, with a game total set at 9.5 runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)
  Tyler Anderson’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (58.7% this year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  This season, Jo Adell has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99 mph compared to last year’s 94.1 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 5 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christian Moore, Logan O’Hoppe, Jorge Soler, Jo Adell, Mike Trout).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Typically, batters like Ozzie Albies who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tyler Anderson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 67 games (+11.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+175)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 away games (+14.00 Units / 70% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+8.35 Units / 21% ROI)