
Houston Astros
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Chicago Cubs
+145O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-165
(-110/-110)-165
Houston Astros Insights
- Peter Lambert – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)In his previous outing, Peter Lambert performed well and notched 8 strikeouts.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Jake Meyers has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Houston Astros in today’s game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .304, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .315 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)Shota Imanaga is an extreme flyball pitcher (44.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Michael Conforto has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.5-mph average to last year’s 90.2-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Chicago Cubs have hit 33.1% of their balls in the air at least 100 mph this year, making them the #7 squad in MLB by this metric.Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+115)The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.95 Units / 34% ROI)
