Get Bets and Betting Tips for Rays vs Athletics – 8/11/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Athletics

As the Tampa Bay Rays visit the Oakland Athletics on August 11, 2025, both teams find themselves in challenging positions this season. The Athletics currently sit at 53-67, while the Rays hold a record of 57-62. Neither team is contending for a division title, but the Rays are looking to improve their standing as they battle for a potential Wild Card spot.

In their last game, the Athletics showcased their offensive prowess, scoring 10 runs in a dominant performance. This is crucial as they prepare to face a Rays team that has had its struggles this season, particularly with consistency on the mound. Oakland’s offense ranks 7th in MLB, highlighted by their 163 home runs, making them a potent threat against opposing pitchers.

On the mound, the Athletics are set to start Jeffrey Springs, who has had a mixed season with a 10-7 record and a solid ERA of 3.89. However, his 4.54 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, and he projects to allow 3.1 earned runs over 5.2 innings today. Facing him will be Ryan Pepiot of the Rays, who has a 7-9 record and a slightly better ERA of 3.77. Pepiot’s projections indicate he may struggle with walks, averaging 1.9 per game, which could be problematic against a disciplined Athletics lineup.

The game total is set at a high 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive matchup. With both teams having high implied totals of 4.75 runs, the Athletics’ ability to capitalize on Pepiot’s flyball tendencies could give them an edge. Given their offensive capabilities and the projections favoring their performance, the Athletics might just pull off a win in this tightly contested affair.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Recording 17 outs per game per started this year on average, Ryan Pepiot checks in at the 76th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Junior Caminero has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 101.6-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Given the 0.92 deviation between Jeffrey Springs’s 7.30 K/9 and his 8.22 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to positively regress going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nicholas Kurtz’s true offensive talent to be a .345, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .083 difference between that mark and his actual .428 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In today’s game, Luis Urias is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.5% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+7.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 115 games (+13.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+120/-155)
  Junior Caminero has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+5.40 Units / 77% ROI)