Get Bets and Betting Tips for Rays vs Athletics – 8/11/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Athletics

The Oakland Athletics will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Sutter Health Park in an intriguing American League matchup on August 11, 2025. Both teams have had tough seasons, with the Athletics sitting at 53-67 and the Rays at 57-62. This game marks the first in their series, following a narrow victory for the Athletics in their last game, where they edged past the Rays with a score of 3-2.

On the mound, the Athletics are set to start Jeffrey Springs, whose statistics reflect a difficult year despite a Win/Loss record of 10-7 and a respectable ERA of 3.89. However, his xFIP of 4.54 suggests a level of luck in his performance, and projections indicate he may struggle, averaging 2.9 earned runs over approximately 5.2 innings pitched. Conversely, the Rays will counter with Ryan Pepiot, who has had a solid season with a 3.77 ERA and has also pitched 24 games. However, his FIP at 4.58 indicates he may be due for some regression, and he projects to give up 3.0 earned runs in 5.0 innings today.

When it comes to offense, the Athletics boast the 7th best lineup in MLB, highlighted by their power with 163 home runs, ranking 6th overall. In contrast, the Rays are squarely in the middle of the pack at 16th, making this matchup even more pivotal. The Athletics’ best hitter has been on a tear lately, hitting .370 over the past week with 4 home runs, which could translate well against Pepiot, a high-flyball pitcher.

Given the context of their recent performances and the strength of the Athletics’ batting, this game is shaping up to be a competitive affair, especially with current betting lines suggesting a tight contest. The high game total of 10.0 runs reflects the potential for offensive fireworks.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Throwing 91.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Ryan Pepiot places him the 76th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Junior Caminero has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 100.8-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  With 6 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jeffrey Springs will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nicholas Kurtz’s true offensive talent to be a .346, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .079 difference between that mark and his actual .425 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In today’s game, Luis Urias is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37% rate (95th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+7.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 115 games (+13.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+175/-235)
  JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+6.20 Units / 124% ROI)