Game Time for Royals vs Guardians – 4/13/2025

Kansas City Royals

@

Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on April 13, 2025, they come off a solid 6-3 victory from the previous day, looking to build on their strong start to the season with an 8-6 record. In contrast, the Royals, at 7-8, are struggling to find their footing, having lost their last game against the Guardians.

On the mound, the Guardians will start Ben Lively, who has had a tumultuous season so far, with a 0-1 record and a 4.40 ERA. While Lively’s last outing on April 8 was promising—allowing no earned runs in five innings—his overall performance has been lackluster, as indicated by his ranking as the 270th best starting pitcher in MLB. He faces a Royals lineup that has struggled significantly, ranking 28th in offensive performance this season.

Opposing him is Cole Ragans, who has been nothing short of elite, ranking 10th among MLB starters with a standout 2.81 ERA. Ragans has shown exceptional strikeout ability, fanning 11 batters in his last start. Given the Guardians’ power-hitting capabilities—ranking 8th in home runs this season—Ragans may find himself in a challenging position, especially as he tends to give up fly balls.

With the Guardians’ bullpen ranked 1st in MLB and the Royals’ bullpen sitting at a dismal 27th, the Guardians hold a significant advantage in late-game situations. The projections suggest a close matchup, with the Guardians’ implied team total sitting at a low 3.57 runs, despite their offensive potential. This game promises to be a crucial test for both teams as they look to establish their identities early in the season.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Cole Ragans may not pitch more than a couple innings consider he will function as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Typically, batters like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Ben Lively.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Kansas City Royals (20.6 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Ben Lively has used his sinker 7.1% less often this year (21.9%) than he did last season (29%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+105/-135)
  Gabriel Arias is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen ranks as the best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 88 games at home (+2.82 Units / 3% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 87 of their last 165 games (+1.95 Units / 1% ROI)
• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-175/+135)
  Cole Ragans has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)