Game Time for Padres vs Mets – 9/16/2025

San Diego Padres

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New York Mets

The New York Mets host the San Diego Padres on September 16, 2025, in a key National League matchup at Citi Field. Both teams find themselves in a tight race for Wild Card positioning, with the Mets holding a record of 77-73, while the Padres sit at 82-68. This game marks the first of a series between the two clubs, making it a critical contest for both as they look to strengthen their postseason hopes.

In their last outings, the Mets defeated the Padres 5-2, while the Padres recently secured a 9-6 victory against another opponent. The Mets are projected to start Clay Holmes, who has had an average season with an 11-8 record and a 3.75 ERA across 29 starts. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been somewhat lucky this year, as his 4.43 SIERA indicates potential struggles ahead. Holmes is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Padres offense that ranks as the 3rd least strikeout-prone unit in MLB, which could give San Diego an advantage.

On the other side, the Padres will counter with Michael King, who boasts an impressive 2.87 ERA and has earned recognition as the 39th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. King has been effective, allowing only 2 earned runs in his most recent start. The Padres offense, although ranked 17th overall, features a solid batting average of .267, placing them 8th in MLB.

The projections suggest a close battle, with the Mets having a slight edge in offensive talent, ranking 7th in MLB for runs scored and home runs. Despite their recent struggles, the Mets have a chance to capitalize on their home field advantage and exploit any missteps from King. With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, bettors might find value in taking the Mets to secure a narrow victory in this pivotal matchup.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Michael King to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 77 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
  Despite posting a .371 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ramon Laureano has been very fortunate given the .039 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 19.5% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under Strikeouts
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sean Manaea in the 88th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jeff McNeil has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 5.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 71 games (+9.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 65 of their last 111 games (+13.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Juan Soto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.90 Units / 38% ROI)