Game Recap for Twins vs Cubs – Wednesday, August 7th, 2024

Minnesota Twins

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Minnesota Twins at Wrigley Field on August 7, 2024, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Cubs, currently sitting at 56-60, are having a rough season and are 10 games out of contention in the NL Central. In contrast, the Twins, with a 63-49 record, are enjoying a strong campaign and are contending for a playoff spot.

In their last meeting on August 6, the Cubs pulled off an impressive 7-3 victory over the Twins, marking a critical win as they look to turn their season around. The Cubs are projected to start Javier Assad, who has had a mixed season with a 5-3 record and a solid ERA of 3.19. However, his xFIP of 4.59 suggests that he may have benefitted from some luck, indicating potential struggles ahead. The Cubs offense has consistently ranked in the bottom tier, currently sitting 22nd in MLB, while their best hitter, Ian Happ, has been a bright spot this season.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with Joe Ryan, a standout pitcher ranked 18th in the league. Ryan has had a decent season, with a 7-7 record and a 3.59 ERA, but his metrics show he could improve further. He projects strong in this matchup, allowing just 1.9 earned runs on average today. With a powerful offense ranking 6th in the MLB, bolstered by Willi Castro’s impressive performance, the Twins look to maintain their momentum.

The projections suggest this might be a close game, with the Cubs showing a 49% win probability, slightly higher than what the betting market implies. This discrepancy may suggest value in betting on the Cubs as underdogs in a matchup that could swing either way.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Joe Ryan’s 93.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.8-mph increase from last season’s 91.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In today’s matchup, Carlos Santana is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.1% rate (96th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Generating 14.8 outs per outing this year on average, Javier Assad places him the 18th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Christian Bethancour – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme flyball bats like Christian Bethancourt are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Joe Ryan.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Chicago Cubs offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games at home (+9.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+12.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-185)
  Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+12.80 Units / 20% ROI)