Game Recap for Giants vs Astros – Monday, March 31st, 2025

San Francisco Giants

@

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros welcome the San Francisco Giants to Minute Maid Park on March 31, 2025, for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams come into this matchup with identical records of 2-1, highlighting their strong starts to the season. The Astros, boasting the 8th best offense in MLB according to advanced statistics, have a notable edge in batting average, ranking 3rd overall. In contrast, the Giants sit at 19th in the league, with a troubling 20th ranking in batting average.

Astros’ pitcher Ronel Blanco is projected to take the mound, though he enters with a concerning Power Ranking of 255th among starting pitchers, illustrating that he is well below average. Blanco’s projections suggest he will pitch around 4.7 innings while allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs. His strikeout numbers are average, but he also projects to allow a dismal 4.1 hits and 2.1 walks, which could spell trouble against a Giants lineup that, despite its struggles, has the potential to capitalize on mistakes.

For the Giants, Jordan Hicks will be on the hill. While Hicks is also regarded as a below-average pitcher, his projections indicate he could perform slightly better than Blanco, allowing 2.2 earned runs over 5.0 innings. However, he too faces challenges, as he is projected to surrender 4.8 hits and 1.6 walks.

With both teams fighting for an early-season edge, the Astros enter the game with a moneyline of -130, giving them an average implied team total of 4.19 runs, while the Giants sit at +110 with a projected total of 3.81 runs. Bettors should note that while the Astros’ offense ranks favorably, their bullpen is only 23rd in the league, which could factor into the game’s outcome as it unfolds. Expect a close contest as both teams look to establish momentum early in the season.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Jordan Hicks – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jordan Hicks to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Heliot Ramos has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (a key ability for batting average), grading out in the 100th percentile in THE BAT X’s Spray Score since the start of last season.
  Explain: Hitters who can spray the ball around the field tend to have good bat control and a strong ability to generate hits.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ronel Blanco must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot since the start of last season: 61.8% of the time, checking in at the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Typically, bats like Jeremy Pena who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jordan Hicks.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (45.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 148 games (+19.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 62 away games (+9.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+7.50 Units / 29% ROI)