Game Recap for D-Backs vs Tigers – Wednesday, July 30th, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Comerica Park on July 30, 2025, the stakes remain high for both teams. The Tigers currently sit at 63-46, enjoying a strong season, while the Diamondbacks, at 51-57, are struggling and not currently contending for a playoff spot. In their last matchup on July 29, the Tigers dominated, winning 12-2, a performance that showcased their offensive prowess.

Detroit’s Chris Paddack, projected to start, has had a challenging year with a 3-9 record and an ERA of 4.95, ranking him as the 144th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite these struggles, he pitched well in his last outing, going 6 innings with only 1 earned run and striking out 8 batters. However, Paddack faces a tough challenge against a powerful Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 4th in MLB in offense and has hit 148 home runs this season, placing them 6th overall.

On the other side, Ryne Nelson of Arizona has been more effective, boasting a 6-2 record and a stellar 3.29 ERA. His recent performance was impressive as well, throwing 6 innings with no earned runs in his last start. However, both pitchers are projected to allow a significant number of hits today, which could lead to a high-scoring affair, with the game total set at 9.0 runs.

While the Tigers’ offense ranks 8th best in MLB, their bullpen sits at 20th, indicating that the game could remain competitive. Betting markets currently favor the Tigers with a moneyline of -135, suggesting a close contest. Given the current projections, the Tigers may have the edge, but the Diamondbacks’ ability to capitalize on Paddack’s flyball tendencies could keep them in the game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Ryne Nelson’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (65.1 compared to 56% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.4-mph average to last season’s 89.2-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Arizona Diamondbacks today carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .316, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .329 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-130)
  Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
  Javier Baez has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .312 mark is quite a bit higher than his .270 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The 9.8% Barrel% of the Detroit Tigers makes them the #7 team in baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 56 games at home (+15.73 Units / 25% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 75 games (+10.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Colt Keith has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 59% ROI)