Game Location for Blue Jays vs Marlins – 8/22/25

Toronto Blue Jays

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on August 22, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position. The Marlins, currently sitting at 60-67, are not in contention for the playoffs and are having a below-average season. In contrast, the Blue Jays boast a strong 74-54 record, positioning them well for a playoff push. In their last outing, the Marlins secured a win against their opponent, triumphing 6-2, while the Blue Jays fell short, losing 2-1.

Ryan Gusto is projected to take the mound for the Marlins, bringing a 7-5 record and an ERA of 4.89 this season. While Gusto ranks as the 143rd best starting pitcher in MLB, he’s faced challenges, particularly with his strikeout rate, which is below average. His 4.25 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, hinting at potential for improvement.

On the other hand, Shane Bieber is set to start for the Blue Jays. With a solid record and ranking as the 44th best starting pitcher, Bieber has shown he can dominate games, as evidenced by his recent performance, where he pitched 6 innings with no earned runs. The projections indicate he will likely allow fewer runs today, making him a significant advantage for Toronto.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 3rd in MLB, showcasing one of the most potent lineups, including their best hitter who has a .298 batting average and 21 home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ offense, despite ranking 18th overall, has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their recent win. However, with a low implied team total of 3.56 runs, they face a tough challenge against a strong Blue Jays pitching staff and lineup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Shane Bieber – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Shane Bieber has notched a 16.9% Swinging Strike% since the start of last season, checking in at the 99th percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.5% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Generating 14.4 outs per outing this year on average, Ryan Gusto checks in at the 13th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1600/-50000)
  Heriberto Hernandez has performed at a clip of 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+140)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 62 games (+15.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 103 games (+19.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 games at home (+9.45 Units / 36% ROI)