Game Highlights for Rays vs Tigers – September 25, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers are set to host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 25, 2024, at Comerica Park, marking the second game in this American League series. The Tigers, currently boasting an 83-74 record, are enjoying an above-average season and remain in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, the Rays, with a 78-79 record, find themselves in a more modest position, needing a strong finish to keep any postseason hopes alive.

In yesterday’s matchup, the Tigers managed to take advantage of the Rays, adding a win to their impressive tally this season. This game’s pitching duel features Keider Montero for Detroit and Zack Littell for Tampa Bay. Montero, a right-handed pitcher, has had an uneven year, sitting at 6-6 with a 4.86 ERA. Despite his struggles, his xFIP of 4.24 suggests some potential for improvement, indicating he’s been a bit unlucky on the mound. Littell, on the other hand, has been somewhat fortunate with a solid 3.56 ERA, though his xFIP of 4.09 hints that regression could be on the horizon.

Offensively, both teams have struggled for consistency. The Tigers rank 24th in MLB in team batting average and home runs and are 26th in stolen bases, all poor rankings. Conversely, the Rays are ranked 27th in batting average and home runs but shine in the speed department, ranking 4th in stolen bases. With Jace Jung batting .667 over the last week for Detroit and Jonathan Aranda delivering power for Tampa Bay with three homers recently, both teams will hope for sparks from these emerging hitters.

The Tigers’ bullpen, ranked 9th best according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, may provide the edge against the Rays’ strong bullpen ranking 2nd. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, forecasts this matchup as a tight contest, projecting Detroit to score 4.26 runs and Tampa Bay 4.49 runs. However, with the Tigers’ implied team total slightly under their projection, Detroit might offer some hidden value in a game with playoff implications.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Zack Littell’s four-seam fastball utilization has dropped by 5.7% from last year to this one (27.9% to 22.2%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Jose Siri – Over/Under Total Bases
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Siri has had bad variance on his side this year. His .276 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .317.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Brandon Lowe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  In his previous game started, Keider Montero was firing on all cylinders and posted 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Parker Meadows has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Keider Montero – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Projected catcher Jake Rogers grades out as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+180)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 71 games (+21.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 90 of their last 150 games (+25.11 Units / 14% ROI)
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  Kerry Carpenter has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.60 Units / 30% ROI)