Game Highlights for Pirates vs Dodgers – April 26, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

On April 26, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will look to bounce back after a disappointing 3-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates the previous day. With a solid record of 16-10, the Dodgers are enjoying a strong season, while the Pirates are struggling at 11-16. This matchup at Dodger Stadium features projected starters Roki Sasaki and Mitch Keller, both right-handed pitchers.

Roki Sasaki, currently ranked as the 37th best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, has had a mixed season thus far, with a 0-1 record and a commendable 3.20 ERA. However, his 5.29 xFIP suggests he may not be as lucky as his ERA indicates. Sasaki’s ability to limit earned runs (projected at 1.9 today) could be vital against a Pirates offense that ranks 28th in the league. Despite his low strikeout rate of 18.6 K%, he faces a Pirates lineup that strikes out frequently, presenting a potential advantage.

On the other side, Mitch Keller has a 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.18. Although he pitched well in his last start, allowing only 2 earned runs over 5 innings, the projections indicate that he could be in for a rough outing today. With expected stats showing he could allow 3.5 earned runs and 5.7 hits, the Dodgers’ offense—ranked 8th in MLB—should capitalize on his struggles.

With the Dodgers listed as heavy favorites and an implied team total of 5.25 runs, this game presents a favorable opportunity for Los Angeles to get back on track as they look to secure a win in this series.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+190)
  Mitch Keller is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Oneil Cruz has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 18.9% seasonal rate to 25% in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Roki Sasaki – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Roki Sasaki in the 87th percentile among all starters in baseball.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Shohei Ohtani’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 94.2-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 78.7-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-260)
  The best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+2.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.30 Units / 53% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-125/-105)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 41% ROI)