Game Highlights for Braves vs Mets – August 12, 2025

Atlanta Braves

@

New York Mets

On August 12, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League East matchup. The Mets are currently enjoying an above-average season with a record of 63-55, while the Braves, at 51-67, are struggling significantly. This game marks the first in a critical series for both teams.

In their previous outing, the Mets showcased their potential by defeating their opponent decisively, further solidifying their place in the standings. With Clay Holmes projected to take the mound for the Mets, he comes in ranked as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting a solid 3.46 ERA this season. However, the projections suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his 4.05 xFIP indicates he could face challenges moving forward. Holmes has started 23 games this year, holding a 9-6 record, and while he projects to average 5.3 innings pitched, his strikeout numbers are below average.

On the other hand, Spencer Strider will be starting for the Braves. Ranked 30th among MLB starters, Strider has a 4.04 ERA and a 5-9 record over 15 starts. He projects similarly in terms of innings pitched, but his ability to strike out batters is a notable strength, averaging 6.3 strikeouts per game.

Offensively, the Mets rank 13th in MLB, reflecting an average talent level, while the Braves sit slightly lower at 17th. The Mets have a high implied team total of 4.27 runs for this game, indicating confidence in their lineup against a struggling Braves team, which has a lower implied total of 3.73 runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Out of all SPs, Spencer Strider’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph grades out in the 81st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Michael Harris II is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Considering that groundball pitchers have a significant edge over groundball hitters, Clay Holmes and his 57.1% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong spot today being matched up with 2 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under Stolen Bases
  Mark Vientos has paced 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• The 10.4% Barrel% of the New York Mets ranks them as the #3 team in the league this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+670/-1400)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+16.50 Units / 275% ROI)