Follow the Live Updates for Yankees vs Orioles – 4/30/2025

New York Yankees

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Baltimore Orioles

On April 30, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will welcome the New York Yankees to Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the third game of their series. Just a day earlier, the Yankees showcased their dominance with a decisive 15-3 victory over the Orioles. Currently, Baltimore sits at 11-18, struggling through a dismal season, while New York boasts a much healthier record of 18-12.

The pitching matchup features Cade Povich for the Orioles and Carlos Carrasco for the Yankees. Povich, a left-hander, has had a rough year with a 5.04 ERA and a Power Rankings spot at #180 among starting pitchers. His projection for this game suggests he will pitch 5.1 innings but may allow 2.7 earned runs, which is below average performance. Conversely, Carrasco has a slightly worse ERA of 5.26 and is noted as one of the worst pitchers in the league according to advanced metrics. His projection indicates a poor outing of 4.4 innings with around 3.3 earned runs expected.

Offensively, the Yankees are firing on all cylinders, ranking 1st in MLB in batting average and home runs, while the Orioles have faltered, sitting at 22nd in overall offense and a distressing 27th in batting average. However, Baltimore’s power shows in their 10th rank in home runs, offering a glimmer of hope for a potential upset.

Despite their disadvantages, the Orioles’ implied team total stands at 4.75 runs, reflecting confidence from the betting markets that this matchup could be closer than expected. As the teams set to clash, the Orioles will look to turn their season around, while the Yankees aim to solidify their status as contenders in the American League East.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Over his last 3 starts, Carlos Carrasco has experienced a big decrease in his fastball spin rate: from 2183 rpm over the whole season to 2069 rpm in recent games.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Aaron Judge usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Cade Povich.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Yankees bats as a unit rank in the majors for power this year when judging by their 12.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Cade Povich is an extreme flyball pitcher (36% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #6 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Ramon Laureano has a ton of pop (83rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (28.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Carlos Carrasco doesn’t generate many whiffs (18th percentile K%) — great news for Laureano.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Heston Kjerstad – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Heston Kjerstad has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+6.90 Units / 57% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 41% ROI)