Cleveland Guardians
Pittsburgh Pirates
(+100/-120)+110
As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on April 18, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing this season. The Pirates currently sit at 8-12, while the Guardians hold a slightly better record of 9-9. Despite their mediocre performance, the Guardians’ bullpen has been exceptional, ranking 1st in MLB, which gives them an edge in tight games.
In their most recent game, the Guardians fell to the Pirates, a disappointing outcome for a team looking to build momentum. Now, they’ll face a Pirates squad that has had a rough go, particularly on the offensive side, where they rank 28th in the league. Their struggles are amplified by the fact that Carmen Mlodzinski, projected to start for the Pirates, has had a tumultuous season, holding an ERA of 6.23 and a Power Ranking placing him as the 168th best starting pitcher in MLB. Although projections suggest he may have been unlucky, his performance thus far has been underwhelming.
Luis Ortiz, the Guardians’ starter, is also not faring well, with a 6.06 ERA. However, he projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings today, which is a slight improvement over Mlodzinski’s projection of 4.8 innings. While both pitchers are struggling, the Guardians may have an advantage if Ortiz can tap into his potential.
The Guardians’ offense has been inconsistent, ranking 20th in the league, but their best hitter is currently in good form, boasting a .381 batting average over the past week. This could be crucial against a Pirates lineup that has not been able to consistently produce runs. With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, this matchup could hinge on which pitcher can limit damage, making it a compelling game for sports bettors to watch.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Luis L. Ortiz’s 95.8-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 89th percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Nolan Jones has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94-mph to 97.2-mph over the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Nolan Jones has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Given that groundball batters hold a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Carmen Mlodzinski and his 43.3% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in today’s outing squaring off against 1 opposing GB hitters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Extreme flyball batters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Luis Ortiz.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the most strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 25.3% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.25 Units / 26% ROI)