Follow the Live Updates for Cardinals vs Nationals – July 06, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals are set to face off in the second game of their series on July 6, 2024, at Nationals Park. The Nationals, currently holding a 41-47 record, are enduring a below-average season, while the Cardinals, with a 46-41 record, are faring better and having an above-average season. The Nationals dropped a close game to the Cardinals yesterday, losing 7-6.

On the mound for Washington will be left-hander MacKenzie Gore, who has been a bright spot in an otherwise challenging season. Gore, ranked the 52nd best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasts a solid 3.47 ERA over 17 starts. He will look to build on his impressive last outing, where he pitched six innings, allowing just one earned run while striking out eight. Gore’s peripherals suggest he’s been performing at a high level, and he projects to pitch 5.3 innings today, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs.

Opposing Gore will be right-hander Lance Lynn for the Cardinals. Lynn, with a 3.59 ERA and a 4-3 record over 17 starts, has been a reliable arm for St. Louis. However, his 4.44 xERA indicates he might have been somewhat fortunate this season. Lynn’s projections for today are less favorable, with an expectation of 5.6 innings pitched and 2.9 earned runs allowed. His strikeout rate is projected to be below average at 4.3.

Offensively, the Nationals have struggled, ranking 24th in MLB, while the Cardinals sit at a middling 19th. Washington’s power numbers are particularly concerning, ranking 29th in home runs, but they do excel on the basepaths, ranking 3rd in stolen bases. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been average across most offensive metrics but also lack power, ranking 25th in home runs.

The Nationals’ bullpen, ranked 28th, could be a vulnerability, especially against the Cardinals’ 3rd-ranked bullpen. Betting markets currently favor the Nationals slightly with a -130 moneyline, implying a 54% win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cardinals a slight edge with a 51% win probability, suggesting potential value in betting on St. Louis.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Lance Lynn – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Lance Lynn’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (62.2 compared to 56.2% last year) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Nolan Gorman is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• St. Louis’s 14° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in the game this year: #5 overall.
  Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  MacKenzie Gore’s 95.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.4-mph rise from last season’s 94.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Keibert Ruiz is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of St. Louis (#3-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 48 of their last 80 games (+13.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+4.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)
  Brendan Donovan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+19.50 Units / 150% ROI)