Follow Live Updates on White Sox vs Braves – Tuesday, August 19th, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Atlanta Braves

On August 19, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Chicago White Sox in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup at Truist Park. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Braves sitting at 56-69 and the White Sox at 45-80. In their previous encounter, the Braves fell to the White Sox by a score of 13-9, a game that highlighted the offensive woes and defensive lapses both squads have faced.

The Braves are projected to start Bryce Elder, who has had a rollercoaster season, currently holding a 5-9 record and a troubling 5.89 ERA. However, his 4.18 xFIP suggests he may have been a victim of bad luck, indicating potential for improvement. In his last outing on August 14, Elder pitched well, going 7 innings with only 2 earned runs, which could give him a confidence boost heading into this game.

Conversely, the White Sox will send Shane Smith to the mound. Smith has struggled as well, with a 3-7 record and a 4.01 ERA. He’s also had issues with walks, boasting a 10.3 BB% that could play into the Braves’ hands, as they rank 3rd in MLB for drawing walks. Smith’s last start was solid, with no earned runs over 5 innings, but his overall inconsistency makes him a liability.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th in MLB, which is average, but their .247 batting average puts them at 21st, indicating room for improvement. The White Sox, on the other hand, rank 29th in MLB offensively, struggling significantly with a .224 batting average. Given the Braves’ strong bullpen, ranked 7th in MLB, they may hold an edge in late-game scenarios, especially with their higher implied team total of 4.77 runs compared to the White Sox’s 3.73 runs.

As both teams look to turn their seasons around, this matchup offers a chance for the Braves to capitalize on their home-field advantage and potentially exploit the White Sox’s weaknesses.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Shane Smith – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shane Smith to throw 83 pitches in today’s game (4th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Brooks Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Brooks Baldwin has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 97.1-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Bryce Elder’s slider utilization has risen by 5.5% from last year to this one (31.5% to 37%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .300 figure is quite a bit higher than his .259 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 70 of their last 124 games (+11.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Miguel Vargas has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 away games (+7.10 Units / 118% ROI)