
Chicago White Sox

Atlanta Braves
(-110/-110)-170
As the Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox prepare for their matchup on August 19, 2025, both teams are struggling in what has been a disappointing season. The Braves sit with a record of 56-69, while the White Sox trail with a 45-80 mark. In their most recent encounter, the Braves took home a victory, but both teams are looking to improve as they head into the second game of this interleague series at Truist Park.
Atlanta’s Bryce Elder, projected to start, has had a challenging season with a 5-9 record and a troubling 5.89 ERA. Despite these numbers, his 4.17 xFIP suggests that he may have been unlucky, and he could bounce back. In contrast, Shane Smith for Chicago holds a 3-7 record and a 4.01 ERA, which is better than Elder’s but still indicates room for improvement. Smith has struggled with control, boasting a high walk rate (10.3 BB%), which could play to the Braves’ advantage, as they excel in drawing walks, ranking 3rd in the league.
Offensively, the Braves feature a batting lineup that ranks 14th overall, but they are only 21st in team batting average—indicating inconsistencies. However, their recent standout hitter has been performing exceptionally, collecting 16 hits and driving in 11 RBIs over the last week, showcasing a 0.516 batting average. The White Sox, languishing near the bottom with the 29th-rated offense, have continued to struggle, making this matchup more favorable for the Braves.
The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for some offensive production. With the Braves listed as significant betting favorites at a moneyline of -170, they are projected to score around 5.05 runs, while the White Sox are expected to average about 3.95 runs based on current odds, underscoring the Braves’ potential to capitalize on this game.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Shane Smith – Over/Under Pitching OutsThe leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shane Smith to throw 83 pitches in today’s game (4th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Josh Rojas’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 92.2-mph figure last year has dropped to 86.7-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Chicago White Sox – 2H MoneylineThe Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Bryce Elder’s slider utilization has risen by 5.5% from last year to this one (31.5% to 37%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-215)Ronald Acuna Jr. has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .303 figure is quite a bit higher than his .263 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Ronald Acuna Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 70 of their last 124 games (+11.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- Brooks Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Brooks Baldwin has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)