Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
(-110/-110)+100
As the St. Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds on September 17, 2025, fans are buzzing after the Reds took an earlier victory in this series. Both teams are currently having average seasons, with the Cardinals sitting at 74-78 and the Reds at 75-76. This matchup is particularly significant as it showcases two teams vying for better positioning in the National League Central.
On the mound, the Cardinals are expected to start Andre Pallante, who has struggled this season with a 6-14 record and a 5.34 ERA. Although Pallante’s Power Rankings position him as the 118th best starting pitcher in MLB, a deeper dive reveals some potential improvement. His 4.12 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky and may outperform his ERA. He projects to pitch an average of 5.5 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.4 hits and 1.9 walks could spell trouble against a Reds offense that ranks 18th in MLB.
Brady Singer counters for the Reds, boasting a more favorable 13-10 record and a solid 3.94 ERA. Singer’s projections indicate he will pitch approximately 5.4 innings, allowing around 2.8 earned runs. While he also struggles with hits and walks, his overall performance has been steady.
The Cardinals’ offense ranks 24th overall, which is concerning, especially against a Reds bullpen ranked 8th in MLB. Despite the Cardinals’ recent resurgence, highlighted by their best hitter’s impressive performance over the last week, they will need to find a way to overcome their offensive limitations to outscore a Reds team that has shown a bit more firepower. With both teams’ moneyline set at -110, this promises to be a closely contested matchup, perfect for fans and sports bettors alike.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Out of all starting pitchers, Brady Singer’s fastball velocity of 91.6 mph is in the 20th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Austin Hays – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Austin Hays’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 88.4-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 75.7-mph in the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Andre Pallante – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)Andre Pallante is projected to record an average of 16.4 outs in today’s game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
- Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jordan Walker’s true offensive talent to be a .309, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .052 gap between that figure and his actual .257 wOBA.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- The St. Louis Cardinals have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, James Crooks).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 55 of their last 97 games (+7.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 131 games (+24.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 67% ROI)