Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
(-110/-110)-120
As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on March 29, 2025, both teams find themselves with identical records of 1-1, suggesting a fierce early-season rivalry in the American League East. In their last matchup, the Orioles edged out the Blue Jays in a tightly contested game, setting the stage for a pivotal third game in this series.
The Blue Jays are projected to start Max Scherzer, who, despite being ranked the 85th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, is expected to have a challenging outing. Scherzer is projected to pitch 4.8 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs, striking out 5.6 batters, but he also faces issues with allowing 4.1 hits and 1.4 walks, which could spell trouble against a capable Orioles lineup.
Dean Kremer takes the mound for the Orioles, and while he is not highly regarded, his projections show he could offer a slightly better performance, pitching 5.0 innings and allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs. However, Kremer also struggles with strikeouts, projecting just 3.4 per game, which could limit his effectiveness against the Blue Jays’ hitters.
With the Blue Jays currently holding a moneyline of -130 and an implied team total of 4.45 runs, they are favored to win, reflecting confidence in their ability to bounce back from the previous loss. Betting markets view this as a close matchup, and while both teams are having average starts to the season, the Blue Jays’ home advantage at Rogers Centre could play a crucial role in flipping the script in this series.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Dean Kremer – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Dean Kremer to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Baltimore Orioles – 2H MoneylineThe Baltimore Orioles bullpen projects as the 10th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Max Scherzer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)The Baltimore Orioles have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Max Scherzer in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-235)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 2nd-best batter in the majors as it relates to his batting average ability.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 74 games at home (+13.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 81 games (+16.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- Max Scherzer – Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-145/+115)Max Scherzer has hit the Earned Runs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+3.40 Units / 42% ROI)