Follow Live Updates on D-Backs vs Giants – Wednesday, September 4th, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 4, 2024, they find themselves in a challenging spot. The Giants hold a record of 68-70, placing them in the middle of the National League West standings, while the Diamondbacks are making a strong push with a record of 77-61. This game marks the second of the series, with the Diamondbacks emerging victorious in the opener.

In terms of pitching matchups, the Giants are set to start Hayden Birdsong, who has struggled this season with a 5.14 ERA and a Power Ranking of 172nd among approximately 350 MLB pitchers. Birdsong projects to pitch an average of 4.9 innings today and allow 2.1 earned runs, but his tendency to permit 4.2 hits and 2.0 walks per game is concerning. Against a powerful Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB, this could pose significant challenges for the Giants.

On the other hand, Arizona will counter with Zac Gallen, who has been a standout this season, boasting a 3.87 ERA and a Power Ranking of 35th. Gallen projects to pitch 5.8 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, making him a solid performer against a Giants offense that ranks 21st in MLB. With the Diamondbacks showing a robust offensive capability and the Giants struggling to generate consistent runs—evidenced by their low implied team total of 3.49 runs—the odds seem to favor Arizona.

While the Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup highlights the disparity between the two teams’ current forms and the effectiveness of their respective pitching staff. The Giants’ best hitter recently has been Matt Chapman, who’s posted a .294 batting average over the past week, but they will need more to compete effectively against a Diamondbacks team riding a wave of momentum.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Zac Gallen was rolling in his last GS and accumulated 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Geraldo Perdomo has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.310 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .333 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to league average, Hayden Birdsong has been granted a below-average leash this year, recording an -9.3 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Matt Chapman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.1-mph to 97.6-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen profiles as the best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.05 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 103 games (+25.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+14.35 Units / 33% ROI)