Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Angels
(-120/+100)-140
On April 24, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Angel Stadium for the third game of their series. The Angels are looking to bounce back after a disappointing start to the season, currently holding an 11-12 record, while the Pirates are struggling even more at 10-15. Last night, the Angels fell to the Pirates, who showcased a surprising burst of offense, making this matchup even more intriguing.
Tyler Anderson is projected to take the mound for the Angels, and he has been solid this year with a 2-0 record and an impressive 2.08 ERA. However, his 5.10 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky, indicating a potential regression. Anderson’s high flyball rate (50%) could play to his advantage against a Pirates lineup that has struggled to hit for power, ranking 25th in home runs this season.
Carmen Mlodzinski will start for the Pirates, and he has not been effective, with a 1-3 record and a troubling 7.41 ERA. His projections indicate he may only pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs. Mlodzinski’s high groundball rate (50%) faces a challenge against an Angels offense that ranks 5th in home runs, suggesting that if they can elevate the ball, they may capitalize on his weaknesses.
While the Angels’ offense ranks 22nd overall, their power potential remains a threat. With the Pirates’ bullpen ranked 24th, the Angels could exploit this matchup, especially given their high implied team total of 4.54 runs for today’s game. The Angels are favored at -140, and with the Pirates’ recent performance, they may need to step up their game to secure a win.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)Carmen Mlodzinski’s fastball spin rate has dropped 153 rpm this season (2136 rpm) below where it was last season (2289 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Oneil Cruz has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.9-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 93.5-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Oneil Cruz ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)Tyler Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #8 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Mike Trout – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Mike Trout is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jorge Soler, Mike Trout, Logan O’Hoppe, Jo Adell, Kyren Paris).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)Logan O’Hoppe has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+11.90 Units / 170% ROI)