Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Angels
(-110/-110)-165
On April 24, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the third game of their series at Angel Stadium. The Angels are looking to bounce back after a disappointing loss to the Pirates, who secured a shutout victory of 3-0 in the previous game. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Angels holding an 11-12 record and the Pirates at 10-15, making this matchup a critical one as each aims to find a rhythm.
The Angels will send Tyler Anderson to the mound, who has shown promise this season with a 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.08, despite being ranked 160th among MLB starting pitchers. His last outing was solid, going six innings with no earned runs. On the other side, Carmen Mlodzinski is set to start for the Pirates. He carries a troubling ERA of 7.41 and has struggled significantly, showcasing inconsistency with a record of 1-3. Projections suggest he may be due for a better performance, but he has yet to prove himself.
When evaluating these teams’ offensive capabilities, the Angels rank 24th in MLB in scoring and 26th in batting average, although they do rank 7th in home runs with 34. Their power may not be fully capitalized against Mlodzinski’s groundball tendencies. Conversely, the Pirates are ranked 27th in scoring and batting average, but they excel in stolen bases, placing 4th overall. This game could hinge on the pitching matchup, especially given the strength of the Angels’ bullpen, which ranks 5th in MLB, compared to the Pirates’ 22nd-ranked bullpen.
As the Angels enter this game as the favorites with a moneyline of -160, they are projected to score nearly 5 runs, while the Pirates have an implied total of just over 4.0 runs. This matchup presents an opportunity for the Angels to break out of their offensive funk and capitalize on the Pirates’ pitching shortcomings.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Carmen Mlodzinski’s fastball spin rate has dropped 153 rpm this season (2136 rpm) below where it was last season (2289 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Oneil Cruz has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.2-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 94-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Oneil Cruz ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)Tyler Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #8 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Pittsburgh’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Luis Rengifo, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jorge Soler, Mike Trout, Logan O’Hoppe, Jo Adell, Kyren Paris).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3500)Nolan Schanuel has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+12.00 Units / 120% ROI)