Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
(-120/+100)+105
On August 19, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field for the second game of a double-header, following a lopsided 7-0 defeat for the Cubs in their last matchup. As the Brewers continue their strong season with a record of 79-46, the Cubs sit at 71-54, trying to regain momentum against their division rivals.
Both teams are in the thick of a crucial series, with the Cubs aiming to bounce back while the Brewers look to solidify their lead in the National League Central. The game will feature right-handed pitchers Jameson Taillon for the Cubs and Brandon Woodruff for the Brewers. Taillon, ranked as the 160th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had an average year with a 4.44 ERA and a 7-6 record across 17 starts. Conversely, Woodruff is enjoying a standout season, boasting a 2.06 ERA and a solid 4-0 record in just 7 starts, placing him among the top 40 pitchers in the league.
From an offensive perspective, the Cubs rank 7th in MLB for home runs and 4th in stolen bases, showcasing their ability to score runs in various ways. However, the Brewers have the advantage in batting average, ranking 2nd in MLB, which could be pivotal in this matchup. Interestingly, the projections suggest that despite the Brewers being favored, the Cubs have a chance to outshine expectations, especially with their offense showing strength.
As both teams take the field, it will be intriguing to see if Taillon can defy his rankings against a patient Brewers lineup, while Woodruff will need to navigate a low-strikeout Cubs offense that may capitalize on his strikeouts. With a Game Total set at a modest 6.5 runs, it’s likely that this matchup will be tightly contested, making it an exciting game for fans and bettors alike.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Brandon Woodruff was rolling in his previous outing and compiled 8 strikeouts.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Danny Jansen is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#3-best of all teams today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- The 6.6% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #30 team in the league this year by this metric.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)In today’s game, Pete Crow-Armstrong is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.6% rate (94th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 71 games (+14.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-125)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 70 games (+34.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)Michael Busch has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.50 Units / 72% ROI)