
New York Yankees

Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)-110
The Miami Marlins will host the New York Yankees on August 2, 2025, in the second game of their interleague series at LoanDepot Park. The Yankees, currently holding a 60-50 record, are in good form and looking to build momentum after their recent victory over Miami. The Marlins, at 53-55, are having an average season and remain competitive in the Wild Card race.
Eury Perez is projected to start for the Marlins, bringing a solid 3.07 ERA into the matchup. Although he ranks as the 43rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, his 4.09 xFIP suggests he may face challenges ahead, especially against a potent Yankees lineup that boasts the 1st best offense in the league. Perez’s high strikeout rate of 26.3% might help him against the Yankees, who strike out frequently, but his tendency to allow fly balls could be problematic against a team that has hit the most home runs in MLB.
On the other side, Cam Schlitter, with a 4.91 ERA, will take the mound for New York. Although Schlitter is considered below average, the projections indicate he may improve his performance, particularly against a Marlins offense ranked just 21st in MLB. The Marlins have struggled to generate power, ranking 26th in home runs, which could play into Schlitter’s favor.
With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Marlins’ moneyline at +100, this matchup appears to be closely contested. The Yankees are slightly favored at -120, but the Marlins’ strong batting average ranking of 9th suggests they can pose a challenge. As both teams look to gain ground, this game could go either way.
New York Yankees Insights
- Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)With 6 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Cameron Schlittler has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)Ryan McMahon has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- New York Yankees – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Eury Perez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Out of all starting pitchers, Eury Perez’s fastball spin rate of 2666 rpm is in the 100th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Graham Pauley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Graham Pauley’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 86.2-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 82.8-mph over the last 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Dane Myers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+17.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+11.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.90 Units / 25% ROI)