Find the Official Lineup for Phillies vs Braves – 6/27/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies on June 27, 2025, both teams are looking to establish their dominance in this National League East matchup. The Braves enter the game with a record of 37-43, indicating a below-average season, while the Phillies sit comfortably at 47-34, enjoying a great year. The Braves are currently facing an uphill battle, as they are projected to start Bryce Elder, who has struggled this season with a Win/Loss record of 2-4 and an ERA of 4.77.

The last time these two teams met, the Phillies achieved a remarkable win with a complete game shutout, showcasing the prowess of their pitching staff. In this matchup, Elder’s 3.66 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and may improve his performance moving forward, but his current form raises concerns, especially when facing a potent Phillies offense that ranks as the 8th best in MLB.

Mick Abel, taking the mound for the Phillies, has shown promise with a 2-1 record and an impressive ERA of 3.47. However, the projections indicate he might have been a bit lucky so far this season. Abel’s low walk rate will challenge the Braves, who rank 6th in MLB for drawing walks, but they may struggle to capitalize on this strength against a pitcher with good control.

With both teams also struggling in their bullpens—ranked 27th and 28th respectively—the potential for a high-scoring game looms, reflected in the current Game Total of 9.0 runs. The Braves are favored in this matchup, boasting an implied team total of 4.78 runs. As they strive for consistency, this game serves as a critical opportunity for the Braves to turn their season around and make a statement at Truist Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (+120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Kyle Schwarber has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 40.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 29.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under Hits
  Bryce Elder projects for an average of 5.8 hits in today’s matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 39 away games (+12.80 Units / 30% ROI)
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 away games (+6.50 Units / 29% ROI)