Find the Official Lineup for Cubs vs Braves – 9/09/2025

Chicago Cubs

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Atlanta Braves

On September 9, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Chicago Cubs at Truist Park for the second game of their series. The Braves currently sit at 65-79, struggling through a disappointing season, while the Cubs are enjoying a strong campaign with a record of 81-63. This matchup is critical for the Cubs as they aim to cement their position in the playoff race.

In their most recent game, the Braves fell to the Cubs, highlighting the challenges faced by Spencer Strider, who is set to take the mound for Atlanta. Strider, despite being ranked as the 49th best starting pitcher in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had an up-and-down season with a 5-12 record and a 4.97 ERA, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky. He projects to average 5.5 innings today, allowing 2.6 earned runs while striking out 6.9 batters, but his tendency to give up 5.0 hits and 1.8 walks is concerning.

Cade Horton will start for Chicago, bringing a solid 9-4 record and an impressive 2.78 ERA into the game. Although his projections suggest a modest outing, with 4.5 innings pitched and 2.3 earned runs allowed, he is still expected to be more effective than Strider. The Cubs’ offense ranks 9th overall and has been bolstered by their best hitter, who has been productive over the last week with a .333 batting average.

With both teams showcasing contrasting forms and strengths, today’s matchup will hinge on how well Strider can navigate the Cubs’ potent lineup. The Braves are projected to score an average of 4.25 runs, matching the Cubs. Given the Braves’ below-average offensive metrics, this game could tilt in favor of Chicago as they look to build on their recent success.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Cade Horton – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Cade Horton has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -12.1 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Seiya Suzuki has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .337 figure is considerably lower than his .381 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago ranks as the #2 squad in the league when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (17.3% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Spencer Strider’s high utilization rate of his fastball (53.1% this year) is likely hurting his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+9.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.05 Units / 58% ROI)