Atlanta Braves
Boston Red Sox
(+100/-120)-115
On May 17, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park for the second game of their interleague series. The Red Sox enter this matchup with a record of 22-24, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Braves sit slightly above them at 23-22, marking them as an average team thus far. In their previous game, the Braves secured a 5-2 victory over the Red Sox, showcasing their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
Both teams will send right-handed pitchers to the mound, with Lucas Giolito projected for Boston and Grant Holmes for Atlanta. Giolito, ranked as the 138th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had a rocky year with an ERA of 5.51. Although he has a 1-1 record in just three starts, his xFIP of 3.80 suggests he could be due for some positive regression. He projects to allow an average of 3.1 earned runs, but his tendency to give up hits—averaging 5.5 per game—could be a liability against a Braves lineup that, while not elite, has the potential to exploit such weaknesses.
Holmes, on the other hand, has started eight games with a 2-3 record and an ERA of 4.14, which is above average. However, his FIP indicates that he might have been a bit lucky this season. He projects to allow 3.3 earned runs while giving up 6.1 hits on average, making him vulnerable as well.
The Red Sox offense ranks 8th in MLB in both batting average and home runs this season, indicating a solid underlying talent that could help them bounce back after yesterday’s loss. With an implied team total of 4.61 runs for today’s game, Boston’s hitters will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and exploit the Braves’ pitching.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-105)Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)Nick Allen is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Boston (#2-best on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Atlanta’s 90-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the league: #7 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Lucas Giolito – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Lucas Giolito will give up an average of 1.9 singles in today’s outing.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Trevor Story is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.