Find the Official Lineup for Braves vs Red Sox – 5/17/2025

Atlanta Braves

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox will host the Atlanta Braves for the second game of their interleague series on May 17, 2025, at Fenway Park. In yesterday’s matchup, the Red Sox lost to the Braves by a score of 4-2, continuing their below-average season with a record of 22-24. The Braves, meanwhile, sit at 23-22, marking their performance as average at best through this point in the year.

On the mound for the Red Sox will be Lucas Giolito, who enters with a mixed record of 1-1 and an unfortunate ERA of 5.51. Despite his struggles this season, Giolito’s xFIP of 3.80 suggests he may have experienced some bad luck and could turn things around in this matchup. In his previous start on May 11, he pitched impressively, going 7 innings while allowing just 1 earned run, which may bode well for his form.

The Braves will counter with Grant Holmes, who has had his own share of inconsistency. His ERA sits at 4.14, which is above average, but his FIP of 5.18 indicates he may not sustain such performance. In his last outing on May 12, Holmes also showcased a solid performance, yielding only 1 earned run across 6 innings.

Offensively, the Red Sox boast one of the best lineups in MLB, ranking 8th overall and 9th in both team batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Braves find themselves at 18th overall in offensive rankings, which could give the Red Sox a notable edge in this contest. The projections suggest a high-scoring affair with a total set at 10.0 runs, favoring the Red Sox with an implied team total of 5.12 runs against the Braves’ 4.88. With a unique opportunity to capitalize on their home-field advantage, the Red Sox will look to bounce back and make a statement after yesterday’s loss.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (+100)
  Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Nick Allen is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Boston (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Atlanta’s 90-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the league: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Lucas Giolito – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Lucas Giolito is projected to record an average of 16.4 outs in this outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Trevor Story is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.80 Units / 60% ROI)
• Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Nick Allen has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.50 Units / 32% ROI)