Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Brewers vs Pirates – 5/23/25

Milwaukee Brewers

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Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 23, 2025, for the second game of their series after both teams faced off yesterday, with Milwaukee winning 8-5. The Pirates, sitting at 17-34, are struggling this season and rank 29th in MLB in offense, particularly lacking power, with only 34 home runs thus far. In contrast, the Brewers, currently 25-26, are having an average season and rank 25th in offense themselves but have shown some speed on the bases, sitting at 2nd in stolen bases.

On the mound, Paul Skenes is projected to start for the Pirates, and he has been a bright spot in an otherwise bleak season. With an era of 2.44, Skenes ranks as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, suggesting he can neutralize the Brewers’ offense, which has been inconsistent. In his last start on May 18, Skenes pitched a remarkable complete game, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 9 batters.

Freddy Peralta will take the mound for the Brewers, with a solid ERA of 2.59 this season. However, his 4.05 xFIP indicates some luck may be involved in his performance. The projections suggest both pitchers will have average outings, but Skenes’ elite performance metrics could give him the edge.

Given the Pirates’ poor offensive rankings, they are projected to score only 3.37 runs, while the Brewers are sitting at a similarly low 3.13 runs. Betting markets reflect this with a tight moneyline, suggesting a close matchup. The low game total of 6.5 runs indicates that runs may be at a premium, further tilting the advantage toward Skenes and the Pirates, who will look to bounce back after yesterday’s loss.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Freddy Peralta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #26 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Sal Frelick has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Today, Rhys Hoskins is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Paul Skenes’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (57.9% compared to 32.4% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Oneil Cruz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.3-mph to 100.4-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+11.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 36 games (+6.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 away games (+8.45 Units / 65% ROI)