Find Out How to Watch Rays vs Reds – Sunday, July 27th, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Cincinnati Reds

On July 27, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Great American Ball Park for the third game of their interleague series. Both teams are on the cusp of contention, with the Reds holding a record of 55-50, while the Rays sit at 53-52. This matchup is critical for both teams to gain momentum as they aim for the postseason. In their last game, the Reds edged out the Rays, showcasing their determination to climb the standings.

The Reds will send Brady Singer to the mound, who has had a challenging season with a 7-8 record and an ERA of 4.84, ranking him as the 161st best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite these struggles, advanced metrics indicate he may be due for a turnaround, as his 4.21 FIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky. Singer projects to pitch about 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs. However, his projections also indicate he may surrender an alarming 5.9 hits and 1.6 walks per game.

On the other hand, the Rays will counter with Shane Baz, who has performed better this season with an 8-6 record and a 4.66 ERA, placing him 64th among MLB starters. Baz’s projections are similarly average, with a projected 5.3 innings pitched and 2.9 earned runs allowed. Both pitchers are right-handed, which may level the playing field for the batters.

Offensively, the Reds rank 14th in MLB, while the Rays are slightly ahead at 13th. However, the Reds’ lineup has been bolstered by their best hitter, who boasts a .571 batting average over the past week. This could be pivotal against Baz, who, despite his better ranking, also allows an average of 5.1 hits per game.

With a game total of 9.5 runs, betting markets suggest a close matchup, reflected in both teams’ moneylines set at -110. The projections indicate the Reds might have a slight edge, making this a game worth watching as they aim to build on their recent victory.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Shane Baz has averaged 92.1 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-215)
  Chandler Simpson is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Brady Singer has used his slider 8.3% less often this season (37.2%) than he did last season (45.5%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Austin Hays has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last year’s 91.6-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 91 games (+15.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 84 games (+12.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.75 Units / 59% ROI)