Find Out How to Watch Dodgers vs Royals – Sunday, June 29th, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Kansas City Royals

On June 29, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers for the third game of their interleague series at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, currently sitting at 39-44 and struggling this season, recently dropped a game to the Dodgers, marking yet another setback in their below-average campaign. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are thriving, boasting a record of 52-32 and leading the league in multiple offensive metrics.

Kris Bubic, projected to start for the Royals, has been solid this year, ranking as the 31st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. His impressive ERA of 2.18 suggests he has performed well, although projections indicate he may have benefited from good fortune and could regress. Bubic’s ability to pitch approximately 5.2 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters makes him a competitive option, but his tendency to allow 5.8 hits and 1.7 walks per outing raises concerns.

On the other hand, Justin Wrobleski, who has struggled this season, projects to start for the Dodgers. His ERA of 4.91 and limited innings pitched could play into the Royals’ hands, especially given the Dodgers’ high-groundball rate, which may mitigate the Royals’ lack of power. However, Wrobleski’s projected performance suggests he may be due for improvement, as his xFIP of 3.23 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky.

Offensively, the Royals rank 27th in the league, while the Dodgers boast the 1st best offense. The Royals’ high implied team total of 4.75 runs reflects the betting markets’ belief that this matchup could be competitive, even with the distinct advantages the Dodgers possess. As both teams vie for momentum, it will be interesting to see if Bubic can outduel Wrobleski and help the Royals turn their season around.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Justin Wrobleski’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (58.3% since the start of last season) is likely dampening his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Over the last 7 days, Tommy Edman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kris Bubic – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Kris Bubic’s 2420-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 82nd percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.9-mph to 95.6-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (37.2% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 82 games (+30.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games (+8.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-150)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.60 Units / 32% ROI)