Find Out How to Watch Blue Jays vs Athletics – Friday, July 11th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Athletics

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on July 11, 2025, both teams come into the matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Blue Jays, boasting a solid 54-39 record, are enjoying a great season, while the Athletics languish at 39-56, having struggled significantly throughout the year.

In their last outing, the Athletics managed a narrow 5-4 victory, but they face a tough challenge against the Blue Jays and their ace, Max Scherzer, who is projected to start. Scherzer, ranked 64th among MLB starting pitchers, has a respectable ERA of 4.76 this season, but his underlying metrics suggest he could perform even better. On the other hand, Luis Severino, the Athletics’ projected starter, continues to battle through a disappointing season, holding a 2-10 record and an ERA of 5.30. Although Severino’s xFIP indicates he might be due for some positive regression, he has struggled to find his rhythm, particularly against a low-strikeout Blue Jays lineup that is likely to capitalize on his weaknesses.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank as the 10th best in MLB, highlighted by their impressive .276 batting average, which is 3rd overall. In contrast, the Athletics’ offense is only average, ranking 12th in MLB, but they possess power, sitting 10th in home runs. However, they will need more than power to overcome their struggles this season.

Betting odds favor the Blue Jays, who have an implied team total of 5.90 runs compared to the Athletics’ 4.60 runs. Given the current form and the matchups on the mound, the Blue Jays are positioned well to take the first game of this series.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Max Scherzer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  With 6 batters who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Max Scherzer ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Addison Barger has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last season’s 88.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (17 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy set of hitters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Luis Severino’s 95.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1-mph decrease from last year’s 96.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Typically, bats like Brent Rooker who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Max Scherzer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 91 games (+8.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-165)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 59 games (+14.59 Units / 19% ROI)
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-115/-115)
  Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+6.85 Units / 21% ROI)