Find Out How to Watch Blue Jays vs Athletics – Friday, July 11th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on July 11, 2025, at Sutter Health Park, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the American League. The Athletics, with a record of 39-56, are struggling and have been unable to find consistent success this season. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays sit firmly in a better spot with a 54-39 record, showcasing strong offensive and pitching performances.

Luis Severino is slated to take the mound for the Athletics, but he comes into this matchup with a troubling 2-10 record and a less-than-ideal ERA of 5.30. His projection suggests he will pitch approximately 5.7 innings while allowing an average of 3.3 earned runs. Severino’s low strikeout rate (15.1 K% this year) could spell trouble against a Blue Jays lineup that is adept at making contact and ranks as the 1st least strikeout-heavy offense in MLB.

On the opposing side, Max Scherzer is expected to start for the Blue Jays. Although his ERA of 4.76 is slightly below average, the projections indicate he will be solid, likely allowing around 3.0 earned runs and striking out an impressive 6.5 batters per game. Scherzer’s ability to handle pressure may give Toronto the advantage they need in this first game of the series.

Notably, while the Athletics rank as the 12th best offense in MLB based on underlying talent, scoring consistency has eluded them. The Blue Jays, ranked 10th overall and 3rd in team batting average, have shown prowess at the plate, with their best hitter recently going 9-for-6 and posting a .391 batting average over the last week. As the game total is set at a high 10.5 runs, excitement is expected as these two teams clash, with the Athletics taking the role of underdogs in this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Max Scherzer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  With 6 batters who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Max Scherzer ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Addison Barger has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last season’s 88.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (18 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy set of hitters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Luis Severino’s 95.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1-mph decrease from last year’s 96.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Typically, bats like Brent Rooker who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Max Scherzer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 91 games (+8.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-160)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 59 games (+14.59 Units / 19% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-155/+120)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.80 Units / 33% ROI)