Find Brewers vs Rays Value Bets and Betting Line – Sunday May 11th, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Milwaukee Brewers at George M. Steinbrenner Field on May 11, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling with below-average seasons, sitting just below .500. The Rays enter this matchup with a record of 18-21, while the Brewers are slightly better at 19-21. Both squads are looking to gain momentum after their recent clash, where the Rays edged out the Brewers 3-2.

The pitching matchup features Drew Rasmussen for the Rays, who is currently ranked as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, showcasing his solid performance this season. Despite a 1-3 record, Rasmussen holds an impressive ERA of 3.09, although his 3.60 xERA suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate in his outings thus far. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 2.1 earned runs, which is a favorable outlook against a struggling Brewers offense that ranks 24th in the league.

On the other side, Chad Patrick is slated to take the mound for Milwaukee. Although his ERA stands at a respectable 3.08, his advanced metrics indicate he may not be as effective moving forward, as his 4.38 xFIP is quite higher. Patrick projects to pitch 5.1 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, which doesn’t bode well against a Rays lineup that, despite being ranked 23rd in overall offense, has shown some life.

With the Rays as betting favorites at a moneyline of -150 and an implied team total of 4.87 runs, they are expected to capitalize on their pitching advantage. The projections favor Tampa Bay to secure a win in this crucial interleague matchup, as they aim to build on their recent success and improve their standing in a competitive league.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Chad Patrick is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Brice Turang has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Rhys Hoskins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.1% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Yandy Diaz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.6-mph to 101.7-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Rays projected batting order is weaker than usual, as their .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .316 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 38 games (+5.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+14.90 Units / 248% ROI)