Seattle Mariners
New York Mets
(-110/-110)-110
On August 16, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Seattle Mariners at Citi Field for the second game of their interleague series. The Mariners enter the matchup with a strong record of 68-55, while the Mets sit at 64-58. Both teams are looking to solidify their positions as they navigate through the season, with the Mariners having a notably good year compared to the Mets’ above-average performance.
In their last encounter, the Mets fell to the Mariners by a score of 11-9, which adds a layer of urgency for the Mets as they seek redemption. On the mound, the Mets are projected to start Nolan McLean, who has struggled this season, ranking as the 128th best starting pitcher in MLB. McLean typically pitches around 4.8 innings and allows an average of 2.7 earned runs, which may not be enough against a potent Mariners lineup that ranks 3rd in home runs this season.
Conversely, Bryan Woo will take the hill for the Mariners. Woo has been impressive, boasting a 10-6 record and ranking as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB with a solid 3.08 ERA. His last outing saw him pitch 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs while striking out 9 batters, showcasing his ability to dominate hitters.
The projections suggest that the Mets will have a tough time against Woo, especially given their high-walk offense facing a low-walk pitcher like him. The Mets’ offense ranks 11th overall but struggles in batting average, currently sitting at 20th. In contrast, the Mariners’ offense is more balanced, combining power and average effectively.
With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the betting markets indicate a close contest, favoring the Mariners slightly with a moneyline of -115 compared to the Mets at -105. This matchup will be crucial for both teams as they look to gain momentum moving forward.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)As a result of his large platoon split, Bryan Woo will be in a tough position going up against 7 hitters in the projected batting order of the opposite hand in today’s matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Extreme flyball hitters like Eugenio Suarez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nolan McLean.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (38.4% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Jeff McNeil has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 5.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 7 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)The 4th-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the New York Mets.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 51 games (+5.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 44 away games (+7.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-620)Julio Rodriguez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+10.70 Units / 107% ROI)