Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Reds vs Brewers – April 5th, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As the Cincinnati Reds face off against the Milwaukee Brewers on April 5, 2025, both teams are looking to break out of their early-season struggles. The Brewers sit at an even 4-4, while the Reds have stumbled to a dismal 2-6. With both teams still trying to find their footing, this matchup is crucial for morale and momentum.

In their previous encounter, Milwaukee edged out Cincinnati in a close contest, but the Reds will be hoping to capitalize on their opponents’ inconsistencies. The Brewers are projected to start Elvin Rodriguez, who has struggled mightily this season with a 0-1 record and an alarming 9.00 ERA. Despite a low walk rate, Rodriguez has allowed a troubling number of hits and earned runs, making him a target for an offense that has ranked 43rd overall in MLB.

On the other hand, the Reds will counter with Brady Singer, who has started strong with a 1-0 record and an impressive 0.00 ERA. However, his 3.27 xFIP suggests he may be due for a regression, especially against a high-strikeout Brewers lineup. The projections indicate that Singer’s strikeout prowess could be a significant advantage against a Milwaukee offense that ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts.

Both teams have shown weaknesses, with the Brewers’ offense ranking 33rd overall and the Reds not faring much better at 43rd. Given the current moneyline odds set at -110 for both teams, this matchup is expected to be closely contested. The game total sits at a modest 8.0 runs, indicating a battle that could hinge on which pitcher can rise to the occasion. With such critical stakes early in the season, fans can expect an intense showdown at American Family Field.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Brady Singer has added a cutter to his repertoire this year and has utilized it 17.4% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Matt McLain has big-time HR ability (84th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Elvin Rodriguez is a pitch-to-contact type (22nd percentile K%) — great news for McLain.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Cincinnati Reds bats jointly rank near the bottom of Major League Baseball since the start of last season ( worst) as it relates to their 87.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+460/-750)
  Jackson Chourio’s speed has decreased this season. His 29.71 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.72 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+5.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 86 of their last 148 games (+15.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 62% ROI)