Explore Pirates vs Rays Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 3/31/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Tampa Bay Rays

On March 31, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at George M. Steinbrenner Field in an intriguing interleague matchup. The Rays, currently sitting at 2-1 this season, are coming off a solid victory against the Pirates just a day earlier, winning 6-4. In contrast, the Pirates are struggling at 1-3 and looking to turn around their fortunes after a narrow loss.

Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen is projected to take the mound, ranking as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. While Rasmussen boasts an excellent average of 0.6 earned runs allowed today, he projects for only 1.8 innings of work, raising some eyebrows about his effectiveness. On the other side, Pittsburgh’s Carmen Mlodzinski is not faring well in the rankings, considered one of the worst pitchers in the league. Mlodzinski’s projections show an average of 0.8 earned runs allowed but similarly short outings with just 1.6 innings expected.

Both teams have lackluster offensive rankings, with the Rays sitting at 29th in MLB for runs scored this season, while the Pirates are at 28th. However, Tampa Bay has a competitive advantage with a strong bullpen, ranked 8th in the league, compared to Pittsburgh’s 24th-ranked unit. This discrepancy could play a significant role as the game unfolds.

With the Rays favored to win, their implied team total stands at a robust 4.60 runs, while the Pirates are projected to struggle with an implied total of just 3.40 runs. Considering the recent struggles of the Pirates and the Rays’ solid start to the season, this game shapes up as a crucial opportunity for Tampa Bay to solidify their early-season momentum.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (30.0) provides evidence that Oneil Cruz has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his 21.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Drew Rasmussen to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 79 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Jake Mangum is penciled in 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 93 of their last 159 games (+20.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 67 away games (+6.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)