Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
(-115/-105)-260
As the San Diego Padres prepare to face off against the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park on September 11, 2025, they find themselves in a favorable position. The Padres boast a solid record of 79-67, reflecting an above-average season, while the Rockies struggle significantly at 40-106, marking one of the worst records in MLB. The stakes are high for San Diego, looking to maintain their momentum against a team that is having a dismal year.
In their last outing, the Padres showcased a strong performance, adding to their recent success. The matchup will feature Padres right-hander Randy Vasquez, who has had an up-and-down season with a 4-6 record and a respectable ERA of 3.91. Although ranked #285 out of approximately 350 pitchers in MLB, Vasquez has managed to keep his earned run average decent, though his peripherals suggest he might face challenges ahead. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings today, allowing around 2.4 earned runs and striking out about 4.0 batters on average.
On the other hand, the Rockies will counter with McCade Brown, who has struggled this season, holding an ERA of 12.54 and a poor 0-3 record over just three starts. Brown’s projection of 4.6 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed highlights the significant difficulties he faces against a Padres offense that ranks 17th overall but shows promise with an 8th place ranking in team batting average.
The Padres are favored in this matchup, with odds indicating a high implied team total of 5.10 runs. Given the stark differences in the two teams’ current form and pitching capabilities, this matchup presents an opportunity for the Padres to capitalize on the Rockies’ weaknesses, especially with their strong bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB. As they step onto the field, San Diego looks to solidify their position and take advantage of their opponent’s struggles.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+180)McCade Brown has recorded a colossal 12.54 ERA over his last 3 games started.Explain: A pitcher who has struggled in his most recent outings may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
- Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#1-best of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Colorado Rockies batters as a unit have been one of the worst in the league this year ( 5th-worst) as it relates to their 88.7-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+145)Compared to the average starting pitcher, Randy Vasquez has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -9.7 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)Jackson Merrill has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (84% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 130 games (+13.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 71 away games (+18.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.95 Units / 28% ROI)