Expert Player Predictions for Phillies vs Twins – Monday, July 22, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins are set to host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 22, 2024, at Target Field. This interleague matchup features two teams having strong seasons, with the Twins holding a 54-44 record and the Phillies boasting an impressive 63-36 mark. Both teams are in the thick of their respective playoff races, making this game particularly significant.

Minnesota will send right-hander Bailey Ober to the mound. Ober, currently ranked as the 38th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a solid season with an 8-5 record and a 4.14 ERA. However, his 3.56 SIERA suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and could perform better going forward. Ober’s last start saw him pitch six innings, allowing three earned runs while striking out six. His ability to limit walks (6.0 BB%) could be crucial against a patient Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in walks.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with left-hander Ranger Suarez, ranked 37th among starting pitchers. Suarez has been stellar this season with a 10-4 record and a 2.76 ERA, though his 3.30 SIERA indicates some luck has been involved. In his last outing, Suarez also pitched six innings but allowed four earned runs. His projections for today’s game are mixed, with a high expected earned run total and low strikeout numbers.

Offensively, both teams are loaded. The Twins rank 5th in overall offense and 6th in batting average, while the Phillies are even better, ranking 3rd in both categories. Bryce Harper continues to be a force for Philadelphia, hitting .297 with 22 home runs and an OPS of .969. Meanwhile, Willi Castro leads the Twins with a .265 average and a .779 OPS.

The bullpens could play a pivotal role, with the Phillies ranked 3rd and the Twins 6th in the Power Rankings. This game is projected to be a close one, with betting markets giving both teams a 50% implied win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Phillies a slight edge with a 53% win probability, projecting them to score 4.94 runs compared to the Twins’ 4.34.

All signs point to a tightly contested game, with both teams needing a win to bolster their playoff aspirations. Keep an eye on how Ober handles the Phillies’ power and patience at the plate, and whether Suarez can maintain his excellent season form against a potent Twins lineup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Given the 0.87 discrepancy between Ranger Suarez’s 8.84 K/9 and his 7.97 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors this year in terms of strikeouts and figures to see negative regression in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Extreme flyball bats like Johan Rojas usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bailey Ober.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Kyle Schwarber hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Among all starters, Bailey Ober’s fastball velocity of 91.3 mph ranks in the 19th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Willi Castro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected offense today (.306 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .324 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+10.80 Units / 38% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 53 of their last 81 games (+20.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 49 games (+10.00 Units / 17% ROI)