Expert Player Predictions for Brewers vs Reds – Sunday, August 17, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 17, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League Central matchup. The Brewers, boasting a strong 78-44 record, currently sit atop the division, while the Reds, at 64-60, are having an above-average season but are not in contention for the division title. In their last encounter, the Reds narrowly fell to the Brewers by a score of 6-5, marking a tight game that underscored the competitiveness of this series.

On the mound, the Reds will send out Andrew Abbott, who has been solid this season with an 8-3 record and an impressive ERA of 2.41. Although Abbott ranks as the 90th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, his 4.39 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky and could face challenges moving forward. He projects to pitch around 5.3 innings today, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, which is below average.

Countering him will be the Brewers’ Jose Quintana, who has a 10-4 record and a 3.44 ERA. While Quintana’s ERA is commendable, his ranking as one of the worst pitchers in MLB raises concerns. He is projected to pitch 5.4 innings but is expected to allow 3.1 earned runs, which could be problematic against a Reds offense that ranks 15th in MLB but is capable of capitalizing on pitching mistakes.

With the Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs, both teams will look to leverage their strengths. The Reds’ best hitter has been on a tear lately, hitting .435 over the past week with 3 home runs, while the Brewers’ top player has also been productive, boasting a .524 batting average in the same span. Bettors should keep an eye on the Reds’ implied team total of 4.66 runs, as they aim to overcome their recent loss and capitalize on Abbott’s strong season.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Jose Quintana has averaged 92.6 adjusted pitches per start this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-180)
  Placing in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Danny Jansen has paced 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Andrew Abbott’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (52.9% vs. 46.5% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 92 games (+24.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 75 games (+34.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 35% ROI)