Expert Picks and Betting Line for Tigers vs Red Sox - Friday April 17th, 2026

+110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-130

Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
In his last game started, Casey Mize was in good form and accumulated 9 strikeouts.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
Gleyber Torres’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 89.8-mph mark last year has fallen to 84.6-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
Gleyber Torres has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
Tallying 17.8 outs per game per started since the start of last season on average, Ranger Suarez falls in the 94th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Roman Anthony – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
As it relates to his home runs, Roman Anthony has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His 14.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.7.
Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
The Boston Red Sox have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 12.3° angle is among the lowest in the league since the start of last season (#28 overall).
Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+6.35 Units / 24% ROI)
Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 away games (+6.90 Units / 14% ROI)
Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
Trevor Story has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)

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