Expert Picks and Betting Line for Rockies vs Braves – Friday June 13th, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Atlanta Braves

On June 13, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Colorado Rockies at Truist Park in the first game of their series. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Braves sitting at 29-38 and the Rockies at a dismal 13-55. While the Braves managed a 6-2 victory in their last outing on June 11, the Rockies found a rare win, edging out their opponent 8-7.

Bryce Elder is projected to take the mound for Atlanta, and he comes off a remarkable complete game performance on June 7, where he allowed just 1 earned run while striking out 12 batters. Elder’s ERA is 4.08 this year, but his 3.47 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve moving forward. In contrast, German Marquez is slated to start for Colorado, carrying a troubling 7.00 ERA and a 2-8 record. Marquez’s last start resulted in him giving up 4 earned runs over 5 innings, further highlighting his struggles this season.

Offensively, the Braves rank 16th in MLB, showing a solid but underwhelming performance, while the Rockies occupy the 29th spot in batting average. This matchup sets up favorably for the Braves, especially given Elder’s high ground-ball rate and the Rockies’ lack of power, evidenced by their ranking of 6th least in home runs.

With the Braves as heavy betting favorites and a projected team total of 5.38 runs, they look to capitalize on the Rockies’ struggles, both offensively and on the mound. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a potentially low-scoring affair influenced by the projected performances of both starting pitchers.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• German Marquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. German Marquez has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.7% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  In comparison to his 92-mph average last year, Ryan McMahon’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94.2 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is weaker than usual, as their .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .322 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Bryce Elder’s 90.9-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 13th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Ozzie Albies generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like German Marquez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Atlanta Braves batters as a unit have been one of the best in MLB this year (5th-) as far as their 90-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+10.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 32 away games (+14.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
  Ryan McMahon has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+8.20 Units / 205% ROI)