Expert Picks and Betting Line for Pirates vs Mets – Sunday March 29th, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Mets

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 13.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Carmen Mlodzinski to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  When it comes to his batting average, Henry Davis has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .168 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .221.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• It may be smart to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  With a 2.15 gap between Nolan McLean’s 10.69 K/9 and his 8.54 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and ought to perform worse the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Since the start of last season, Juan Soto’s 17.8% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 97th percentile among his peers.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York’s 90.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in baseball: #2 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.