Expert Picks and Betting Line for Brewers vs Guardians – Monday May 12th, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 12, 2025, in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Currently, the Guardians are in a strong position with a record of 23-17, while the Brewers sit at 20-21, making this matchup particularly intriguing. The Guardians’ recent performance has been somewhat of a mixed bag, as they lost their last game against the Brewers by a score of 3-0 on May 11, 2025. In contrast, the Brewers come off a victory, winning 4-2 in their last outing.

On the mound, the Guardians will rely on Ben Lively, who has been inconsistent this season. Despite a solid ERA of 3.46, his underlying metrics indicate potential struggles ahead, as he ranks as the 275th best starting pitcher in MLB. Lively projects to pitch 5.1 innings today, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs. His strikeout rate of 3.6 per game is concerning and could be a vulnerability against the Brewers.

Freddy Peralta, on the other hand, will take the hill for Milwaukee. With an impressive ERA of 2.18, he ranks as the 32nd best starting pitcher in MLB, positioning him as a significant threat in this matchup. Peralta projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing only 2.4 earned runs, and his strikeout ability could put pressure on a Guardians offense that ranks just 19th in MLB.

While the Guardians’ bullpen is recognized as the 6th best in MLB, the Brewers’ offense, particularly their ability to steal bases, ranks 1st, which could create scoring opportunities. With the Guardians’ moneyline set at +110 and the Brewers at -130, the game is expected to be competitive, and the Guardians may have an edge given their strong season thus far.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Freddy Peralta has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.2% less often this year (41%) than he did last season (46.2%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  William Contreras has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 99.8-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Milwaukee Brewers (21.3 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy batting order on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Ben Lively’s 2028-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 2nd percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Extreme flyball batters like Jose Ramirez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.20 Units / 63% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.50 Units / 28% ROI)