Expert Picks and Betting Line for Brewers vs Cubs – Wednesday October 8th, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Given that groundball batters hold a substantial edge over flyball pitchers, Quinn Priester and his 52.2% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in this matchup squaring off against 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Brice Turang has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 2.5% rate last year to 8.1% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Christian Yelich has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-180/+135)
  Jameson Taillon’s cutter percentage has fallen by 10.6% from last year to this one (25% to 14.4%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Michael Busch has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last year’s 89.8-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 5th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 65 games at home (+18.95 Units / 17% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 85 of their last 135 games (+26.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+170/-225)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+9.65 Units / 107% ROI)