Dodgers vs Rockies Insights and Game Breakdown - 4/20/2026

-205O/U: 12
(-110/-110)+175

Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
With 7 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Justin Wrobleski faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Andy Pages has been lucky this year, posting a .457 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .131 deviation.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Jose Quintana – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
Jose Quintana’s 89.9-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 6th percentile among all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
Brenton Doyle is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Compared to their .320 overall projected rate, the .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order in this game suggests this version of the lineup considerably weaker than usual.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Colorado Rockies – Run Line +1.5 (+120)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+7.15 Units / 64% ROI)
Over/Under 12.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 away games (+5.85 Units / 11% ROI)
Jordan Beck – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Jordan Beck has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.30 Units / 60% ROI)

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