Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Red Sox vs Brewers Match Preview – May 28, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Milwaukee Brewers

On May 28, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Boston Red Sox at American Family Field for the third game of their interleague series. The Brewers are currently sitting at a .500 record of 28-28, while the Red Sox are struggling with a record of 27-30. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, especially after the Brewers won decisively against the Red Sox 5-1 yesterday, marking a strong performance from their lineup.

Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for Milwaukee, boasting a solid 5-3 record and an impressive ERA of 2.55 this season. His performance has earned him a spot among the top 40 starting pitchers in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his xFIP of 4.13 suggests he may have enjoyed a bit of good fortune this year. Peralta projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing a respectable 2.2 earned runs while striking out an impressive 7.4 batters on average.

On the other side, Brayan Bello is set to start for Boston. With a record of 2-1 and an ERA of 4.08, Bello is considered an average pitcher. His projections indicate he will pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs but only striking out 4.5 batters on average. This matchup could favor Peralta, especially given that the Brewers’ offense has not performed well overall, ranking 25th in the league.

The Brewers’ bullpen is currently ranked 21st in MLB, posing a potential challenge if the game remains close. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive matchup. With a moneyline of -150, the Brewers are favored, reflecting the belief that they can carry their momentum from yesterday’s victory into this game.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Brayan Bello’s 94.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.2-mph drop off from last season’s 95.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Extreme flyball batters like Wilyer Abreu usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Freddy Peralta has averaged 93.5 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Jake Bauers has made significant strides with his Barrel%, upping his 10.5% rate last season to 20% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games (+7.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Joseph Ortiz has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.80 Units / 38% ROI)